As I mentioned in my last email about Colombia, my partners there lead a prominent family office that has worked with our community to structure solid hard-asset investments over the years.
Over the weekend, I asked them to give me a more detailed explanation of who Abelardo de la Espriella is, so I could understand how he went from being barely recognized in the polls to an overwhelming favourite to become the country's next president.
(Funny enough, during our tour to Colombia this past December, our group met privately with Sergio Fajardo, who at the time was leading in the polls by a long shot while Abelardo de la Espriella was, as I just mentioned, “barely recognized” in them).
Beyond his being the right-leaning Colombian presidential candidate who came out on top in the first round of the country's election last night, I wanted to understand exactly what it is about Abelardo de la Espriella that is resonating with the people of Colombia.
My partners explained to me how Abelardo de la Espriella is a successful lawyer and entrepreneur, extremely media-savvy, highly outspoken, aggressively anti-socialist, and, in their words, “you can think of him as a mix between Bukele, Milei, and Trump.”
…quite the cocktail, if I do say so myself.
Whether you love that comparison or not, I’m sure you can understand why a figure like that would begin gaining traction in a country where people are just plain tired.
They are tired of insecurity, tired of ideological experiments, tired of anti-business rhetoric, and tired of watching a country with extraordinary natural advantages fail to live up to its potential…
…especially after so much positive progress had been made in the past couple of decades.
After the past 4 years of Colombia being pulled into a left-wing experiment (for the first time in the last 20 or so years), the people of Colombia appear to be saying ENOUGH.
After just four years of a “lefty” being in power, the people of Colombia are realizing that the socialist “one for all, all for one” type of attitude is NOT what pushes a country toward prosperity.
4 years of demonstrating an aversion toward capitalism is ENOUGH.
4 years of treating investors, entrepreneurs, landowners, business owners, and productive people like the bad guys whose hard work shouldn’t be rewarded is ENOUGH.
4 years of watching Colombia’s potential get dragged down by the socialist playbook is ENOUGH.
They tried their little experiment, and quickly (and seemingly) learned that left-leaning politics, and socialist promises and practices aren’t all they are cracked up to be.
Last night, the people spoke: they are ready to get back on track under a tough-on-crime, pro-business leader like Abelardo de la Espriella.
I have large positions in Colombia that span beyond my portfolio of rental units.
I am talking about hard-asset plays with long timelines.
I won’t divulge much publicly, but I will say this: a meaningful portion of the thesis involves timber, forestry, land… AKA assets that require patience, local knowledge, and conviction.
So yes, I care deeply about Colombia’s political direction and am personally invested in the outcome of this election.
When you have meaningful capital exposed to a country as I do, and when the thesis depends on long-term stability, you can understand why I would be paying very close attention to whether the country is moving toward or away from sanity.
Abelardo de la Espriella is not some quiet, polished, establishment figure being ushered in as a figurehead of change; he is the guy who turns things on their head.
He is outspoken and anti-socialist, and if he wins the runoff election on June 21 (fingers crossed), he will get Colombia back on the track it had been on for the past 20 or so years.
Now… think about this: OUR COMMUNITY HAS BEEN INVESTING IN COLOMBIA UNDER THE CURRENT LESS-THAN-FAVOURABLE SOCIALIST-TYPE CONDITIONS AND HAS STILL COME OUT ON TOP.
Even with the headwinds fighting to slow us down, we have still been able to allocate capital intelligently and make high-upside plays.
…and even if the socialists manage to remain in power by electing Iván Cepeda later this month, we will continue to do so…
But think about what happens if Abelardo de la Espriella does take power?
Think about what it will mean for us when we have the tailwinds propelling us forward?
If Colombia moves back toward a more right-leaning, pro-business, anti-socialist direction, that would be extremely positive for the country’s long-term investment case… and as such, for our entire community.
More on this soon. Stay tuned.
Speak soon,
Mikkel
PS. Saturday, I hosted a presentation in which I unveiled a project that sits along the coast of my adopted home country of Panama, and if you weren’t there live to see it, you aren’t out of luck. The presentation replay is available here… but you’ll need to watch it soon because in the next few weeks, it will be locked away in The Hub, where access will be limited to members only.
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