A new CMHC report just confirmed something important:
Housing starts dropped 17% in October.
It’s one headline, but it has long-term implications — especially in a region like Toronto and the GTA, where demand already outpaces supply.
Let me give you the calm, simplified version of what this really means.
📉 What’s Happening Right Now
Builders are slowing down.
Financing is more expensive, construction costs are still high, and uncertainty is making many developers hit pause.
When new homes aren’t started today, we feel the impact 2–5 years from now — right when those homes would have been completed.
And in areas like Toronto / Scarborough, Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, and the rest of the GTA, we’re already behind on affordable housing supply.
🏡 What This Means for You (0–24 Months)
If you’re actively looking, you’ll likely see:
- Stable or tighter inventory
- More competition in certain starter-home segments
- Price resilience in family-friendly neighbourhoods. Not all communities are the same.
📈 What This Means for You (2026–2029)
This slowdown is planting the seeds for future upward pressure on prices, especially in:
- Entry-level freeholds
- New-build townhomes
- Family homes in Durham
- Toronto condo alternatives
- Affordable pockets in Toronto, Scarborough & Durham region.
If demand picks up — and historically, it always does — the supply gap will widen.
🧭 If You’re Still “Waiting for Prices to Drop”
This report is worth paying attention to.
When construction slows, the long-term trend tends to shift toward higher prices, not lower.
Waiting may feel safe…
but waiting in a shrinking-supply environment often works against buyers.
✔ Helpful Next Steps
To help you plan ahead — with clarity, not pressure:
👉 Download my First-Time Homebuyer Checklist
A calm, step-by-step resource to help you prepare confidently.
🎥 I also made a short video breaking this down visually — you can watch it here:
Got questions?
Whether you’re thinking of buying in 3 months or 3 years, I’m here to help you move through the process & get you Home With Confidence.
Talk soon,
Fred Camingal
Your calm guide through Toronto & GTA real estate
PS:
If you want a quick take on what this means for your neighbourhood (Toronto/Scarborough, Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, or Oshawa), reply to this email —
I’m happy to break it down for you.
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